The Great Courses – Mathematical Decision Making: Predictive Models and Optimization 2021-5

The Great Courses – Mathematical Decision Making: Predictive Models and Optimization 2021-5 Downloadly IRSpace

Apr 17, 2025 - 11:59 Updated: Apr 20, 2025 - 22:06

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The Great Courses – Mathematical Decision Making: Predictive Models and Optimization 2021-5

Mathematical Decision Making: Predictive Models and Optimization, Not so long ago, executives faced with complex problems made decisions based on experience, intuition, and no small measure of luck. But now there’s a better way. In recent decades, mathematics and computer science have perfected formerly top-secret techniques for predicting the best possible outcomes when faced with conflicting options. This field goes by different names—analytics, operations research, linear and nonlinear programming, management science—but its purpose is simple: to apply quantitative methods to help business managers, public servants, investors, scientific researchers, and problem solvers of all kinds make better decisions.

These same techniques can be applied to retirement planning, stock portfolio analysis, budget forecasting, health care allocation, public relations, marketing and advertising, and many other tasks for enterprises large and small. The applications are truly endless! Mathematical decision making got its first rigorous tests during World War II, when the Allies used top-secret operations research to protect convoys, improve the aim of anti-aircraft fire, and locate the weak points on Allied bombers. After the war, private industry adopted operations research with enthusiasm, but these new methods were expensive, computing speed was slow, and only specialized experts could take advantage of the algorithms. That situation has changed dramatically, and today anyone with a home computer and a spreadsheet program can harness the power of these methods to solve practical problems. The trick is knowing what you can do and how to do it.

What you’ll learn

Pricing: Costco rose to become one of the top-ranked retailers in the world by combining membership fees with the economy of selling in bulk. A mathematical technique—called genetic algorithms—shows the advantages of this strategy as well as the optimum prices to charge.
Scheduling: Using nonlinear programming, many airlines employ scheduling software that can find the most favorable solution to unexpected disruptions—from weather to mechanical problems to crew availability—saving millions of dollars in operating costs.
Bidding: Simulation models can take a lot of guesswork out of competitive bidding for a project. By running repeated simulations against competitors, a bidder can come up with a proposal that has a good chance of winning the job, while still making a profit.
Queuing: Any process that reflects the behavior of waiting lines is known as queuing. Markov analysis shows how a small increase in input to a system can have a major impact on waiting times. The method also reveals surprising solutions for making long waits vanish.

Who this course is for

managers eager to make better decisions—whether in business, technical, or non-profit endeavors;
professionals aspiring to advance in their careers by mastering a proven approach to problem solving;
those who work with or review spreadsheet and graphical presentations, and need to be able to separate good data from bad;
students in business, mathematics, finance, marketing, health care, engineering, urban planning, and a host of other fields;
math lovers curious to see a field that is often the opposite of calculus: simple functions and complex boundary conditions, instead of complex functions with simple boundary conditions; and
lifelong learners who want to hone their critical thinking skills with important analytical techniques, made accessible and intellectually exciting as never before.